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The Contenders is a midweek column that examines artists striving for the top of the Billboard charts and the strategies they employ. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated June 7, we assess the prospects of Morgan Wallen and Tate McRae’s star-studded duet continuing its dominance on the chart.
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Morgan Wallen feat. Tate McRae, “What I Want” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): The collaboration between country superstar Morgan Wallen and emerging pop talent Tate McRae propelled “What I Want” to not only be the highest-ranking of Wallen’s record-setting 37 tracks on the Hot 100 last week but also the overall No. 1 single – marking Wallen’s fourth and McRae’s first. The song debuted with 31.2 million official streams, as reported by Luminate, allowing it to top the Streaming Songs chart, compensating for its relatively minimal radio presence as a new release.
That streaming presence is expected to remain strong in its second week, as the track continues to dominate the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart and the Apple Music real-time chart. The song is also beginning to make waves on radio: after entering at Nos. 32 and 38 on Adult Pop Airplay and Pop Airplay, respectively, on this week’s charts (dated May 31), it’s climbing toward the top 25 on both. (On Country Airplay, it debuted at No. 55 this week but may drop off next week, given its current focus on pop and adult formats.)
Should the song sustain its performance for a second week, it will become the first multi-week Hot 100 No. 1 from I’m the Problem, surpassing the one-week No. 1 “Love Somebody,” which topped the chart last November. (It would still need another 14 weeks to match the longest-reigning single from the previous album One Thing at a Time, the 16-week No. 1 “Last Night” in 2023.)
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): If not for Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem album debut, we would likely be discussing Alex Warren celebrating his first Hot 100 No. 1 single this week. After several weeks stuck at No. 2 behind Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther,” “Ordinary” finally advances past that 13-week No. 1 but is currently ranked at No. 4 this week, trailing three tracks from I’m the Problem.
Nevertheless, “Ordinary” remains a serious contender for the top position. It continues to rank high on major streaming charts, and after entering the Radio Songs top 10 this week, the song now aims for the top five; it saw a 16% increase in audience from May 23-26 over the previous week. Additionally, it’s looking to claim the No. 1 spot next week on Adult Pop Airplay, and could reach the top on Pop Airplay soon thereafter.
Furthermore, Warren has released a new song in collaboration with Jelly Roll titled “Bloodline,” which is also anticipated to have a strong debut on the Hot 100. However, as exemplified by the recent success of artists like Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, having simultaneous follow-up hits can be more beneficial than detrimental to the original hits, suggesting that “Bloodline” might enhance “Ordinary” in its quest for the top.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Morgan Wallen will likely see a lot of himself in the rearview mirror, as his solo tracks that rank at No. 2 and 3 on the Hot 100 this week — “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem,” respectively — should remain significant contenders on the chart next week. Although both tracks trail “What I Want” on digital streaming platforms, they have an advantage in radio: “Just in Case” is climbing on Country Airplay, although it may still be outside the top 10 next week, after hitting a new high of No. 13 this week. Meanwhile, “I’m the Problem” has dominated Country Airplay for six weeks and could be on track for a seventh week at No. 1.
If one of these other I’m the Problem tracks surpasses “What I Want” on the Hot 100 next week, Wallen would replace himself at the top for the first time in his career – becoming the first artist to do so since… Kendrick Lamar just a few months ago, when a Super Bowl-rebounded “Not Like Us” gave way to “Luther” and its prolonged reign.
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