Revised Predictions for the Top 8 Categories of the 2025 Tony Awards

Based on the insights of over 700 Gold Derby experts, editors, and users, here’s the current status of the top eight races. Don’t forget to scroll down for an updated count of wins by show across all 26 categories. Our predicted winners are highlighted in gold.

BEST MUSICAL

1. Maybe Happy Ending — 31/20
2. Dead Outlaw — 9/2
3. Death Becomes Her — 9/2
4. Operation Mincemeat — 7/1
5. Buena Vista Social Club — 7/1

Maybe Happy Ending remains at the forefront of the Best Musical category, holding stable odds over the past fortnight, while other contenders have been gaining ground. Dead Outlaw has overtaken Death Becomes Her for second place, despite the latter securing more overall nominations and building momentum according to insider discussions. This change aligns with our forecasts, as our users anticipate Dead Outlaw winning the critical Musical Book award, whereas Death Becomes Her is projected to win only in Costume Design. Meanwhile, Operation Mincemeat has equalized its odds with Buena Vista Social Club and has made its way up to fourth position. The former is expected to secure a win for Featured Actor, Jak Malone, while the latter is likely to take home four awards, including Featured Actress for Natalie Venetia Belcon, Orchestrations, Choreography, and Sound Design.

BEST PLAY

1. Oh, Mary! — 39/20
2. Purpose — 7/2
3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 37/10
4. The Hills of California — 15/2
5. English — 17/2

Similar to Maybe Happy Ending in the Best Musical category, frontrunner Oh, Mary! maintains a solid lead over its competition. However, in the event of an unexpected upset, our users believe that Purpose may have a stronger chance of winning compared to John Proctor Is the Villain. Both plays received an impressive number of nominations, earning six and seven, respectively, though John Proctor boasts support across multiple categories, including Best Direction for Danya Taymor, while Purpose has only seen five of its performers recognized. A significant factor influencing predictions toward Purpose is its recent win of the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Historically, winning this prestigious honor does not necessarily correlate with winning a Tony — the odds are less than fifty percent — and Oh, Mary! also boosted its chances by being named a finalist for the same accolade.

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

1. Sunset Boulevard — 83/50
2. Gypsy — 27/10
3. Floyd Collins — 4/1
4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical — 11/2

This competition also remains stable as director Jamie Lloyd‘s Sunset Boulevard holds a lead over its closest competitor, Gypsy. The nominations favored Sunset since Gypsy missed a crucial bid for its director George C. Wolfe. Nevertheless, the revival of the classic by Stephen Sondheim, Jule Styne, and Arthur Laurents might garner backing from voters who found this bold reimagining of Andrew Lloyd Webber‘s Sunset Boulevard divisive. Furthermore, Sunset solidified its frontrunner status with a victory in the Musical Revival category at the Drama League Awards, surpassing its three Tony competitors.

BEST PLAY REVIVAL

1. Yellow Face — 19/10
2. Eureka Day — 49/20
3. Our Town — 4/1
4. Romeo + Juliet — 9/2

David Henry Hwang‘s Pulitzer finalist Yellow Face has further solidified its position in this category, though Jonathan Spector‘s Eureka Day has built a robust support base. With only one nomination each, Our Town and Romeo & Juliet, helmed by Tony winners Kenny Leon and Sam Gold respectively, are not significant contenders in this race.

SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the challenging musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)

1. Audra McDonald, Gypsy — 11/5
2. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard — 53/20
3. Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical — 11/2
4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her — 13/2
5. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her — 7/1

While Gold Derby’s rankings for the five nominees in this captivating category have not shifted, significant developments have occurred since the nominations were declared. Initially, Jasmine Amy Rogers triumphed over three of her fellow Tony nominees in the Lead Performer category at the Outer Critics Circle Awards. Following this, Nicole Scherzinger snagged the Distinguished Performance award at the Drama League Awards, a distinction that a performer can win only once. Notably, Audra McDonald wasn’t eligible there as she won the accolade in 2012 for The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess. While Scherzinger currently has a higher number of users predicting her victory, McDonald leads our odds, with more experts and editors favoring her; McDonald has also narrowed the voting gap, with only three dozen votes now distinguishing her from Scherzinger.

Watch our video interview with Boop! The Musical‘s Jasmine Amy Rogers here.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)

1. Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending — 10/3
2. Jonathan Groff, Just in Time — 4/1
3. Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins — 5/1
4. Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard — 11/2
5. Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw — 13/2
6. James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World — 17/2

Maybe Happy Ending‘s Darren Criss continues to lead this vast field and could secure the Best Musical frontrunner’s most significant award on Tony night. While three challengers are beginning to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack, they are still significantly trailing. Jonathan Groff, previously third in our predictions, has gained traction and now sits in second place for his vibrant portrayal of Bobby Darrin, although no performer has ever won the Best Actor (Musical) category consecutively in two years. Jeremy Jordan has dropped from second to third place but maintains a solid base of supporters for his gripping performance as real-life explorer Floyd Collins. Consistently in fourth place, Tom Francis has delivered one of the season’s standout moments by performing the title number from Sunset Boulevard live on camera in Manhattan eight times a week. This diverse field could lead to either an unexpected upset or a clearer path for Criss to emerge victorious.

Read our interview with Sunset Boulevard‘s Tom Francis here.

BEST ACTRESS (PLAY)

1. Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray — 8/5
2. LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose — 9/2
3. Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California — 5/1
4. Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain — 11/2
5. Mia Farrow, The Roommate — 17/2

Snook currently holds the most commanding lead among all leading acting nominees in terms of overall votes. However, Gold Derby users have been deeply considering who may clinch the award if the Succession star doesn’t win. Initially, our predictions favored Laura Donnelly, but she has now been surpassed for second place by LaTanya Richardson Jackson. Despite Donnelly receiving stellar reviews and holding a more significant role in The Hills of California compared to Jackson’s in Purpose, this change seems justifiable. Jackson’s play continues throughout the Tony voting period, placing her more prominently in voters’ minds as they attend current Broadway performances. Occasionally, actresses from concluded productions win this top honor — for instance, Deirdre O’Connell in Dana H. in 2022 — but the category usually favors performances from running shows. This could also provide an edge to Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain, if that play exceeds expectations with a victory for Best Play or Best Direction.

Watch our video interview with John Proctor Is the Villain‘s Sadie Sink here.

BEST ACTOR (PLAY)

1. Cole Escola, Oh, Mary! — 3/1
2. Jon Michael Hill, Purpose — 9/2
3. Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face — 9/2
4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck — 11/2
5. Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 13/2
6. Harry Lennix, Purpose — 8/1

While Snook is now enjoying the broadest lead among all acting contenders, Cole Escola is not far behind with a memorable performance in Oh, Mary!. The rest of the lineup remains unchanged, with Jon Michael Hill, Daniel Dae Kim, and George Clooney garnering minor pools of votes. Hill could see a surge in support if voters favor Purpose for the Best Play prize, though it seems quite unlikely they would overlook Escola in either playwriting or performing categories. Kim may also attract votes from those supporting Yellow Face for Best Revival, but it appears more probable that its featured performance by Francis Jue will win rather than its lead. Recently, George Clooney announced that Good Night, and Good Luck will be live-streamed on CNN for its penultimate performance, aiming to broaden access to the best-selling Broadway play ever, but this effort is unlikely to generate enough votes to eclipse Escola’s lead.

Read our interview with Stranger Things: The First Shadow‘s Louis McCartney here.

WIN PREDICTIONS BY SHOW (MUSICALS)

Buena Vista Social Club — 4
Maybe Happy Ending — 4
Sunset Boulevard — 3
Dead Outlaw — 1
Death Becomes Her — 1
Gypsy — 1
Operation Mincemeat — 1

WIN PREDICTIONS BY SHOW (PLAYS)

Oh, Mary! — 5
Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 3
Eureka Day — 1
The Picture of Dorian Gray — 1
Yellow Face — 1

Check our official odds for winner predictions across all 26 categories, updated on May 21. The 2025 Tony Awards are scheduled for Sunday, June 8.

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